October 27, 2025
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Toronto, October 27, 2025 — With one year to go before the 2026 Toronto municipal election, a new poll shows that Mayor Olivia Chow is vulnerable to defeat, as voter dissatisfaction with the direction of the city continues to climb.
The poll of 805 Toronto residents, conducted by One Persuasion, finds that declared candidate Brad Bradford would defeat Chow in a head-to-head race, with 40 per cent support for Bradford, compared to 32 per cent for Chow.
John Tory, who has not indicated whether he will run, could also beat Chow in a hypothetical two-candidate contest, with 44 per cent support compared to Chow’s 31 per cent.
Seven in 10 (70 per cent) of Torontonians surveyed indicated they believe the city is on the wrong track, with crime, affordability, homelessness, and congestion topping the list of voter concerns.
Meanwhile, one-third of Torontonians who voted for Chow in the 2023 by-election now say it is time for a new mayor.
“When voters say the city is on the wrong track by a two-to-one margin, it’s a clear warning sign for any incumbent,” said Hamish Marshall, Partner at One Persuasion. “When nearly 70 per cent of voters think the city is going in the wrong direction, that’s the textbook setup for a change election.”
Chow, meanwhile, would stand to benefit from a fractured ballot if John Tory chooses to enter the race. In a three-way contest, Chow nets 33 per cent of support, compared to 36 per cent for Tory and 29 per cent for Bradford – a statistical dead heat.
“Bradford has shown surprising growth, pulling even with two of the best-known names in Toronto politics,” said Marshall. “As the first major candidate to jump into the race, and with an increasing demand for change, Bradford presents a compelling contrast with the current and former mayors.”
The numbers underscore Chow’s vulnerability on key issues, said Marshall.
“Voters are looking for someone who can deliver results on affordability, public safety, and basic city services. The 2026 mayoral race could be defined by a strong desire for new leadership.”
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Methodology
The survey of 805 residents of the City of Toronto was conducted online by One Persuasion between October 6 and 8, 2025 using a nationally representative panel. Results were weighted for accuracy on age, gender, region, and past voting behaviour. The margin of error is ±3.5 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty. The survey was commissioned by A Better City (ABC) Toronto.About One Persuasion
Founded in 2018, One Persuasion is the trusted polling and focus group partner of governments, companies, associations and anyone looking to understand the public mood towards their issues. One Persuasion’s partners have decades of experience in research and public opinion polling.Media Contact:
Hamish Marshall
Partner, One Persuasion Inc.
📧 hamish.marshall@onepersuades.com